Bristol City 2–1 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oxford United

N. Wells 76' (pen)

S. Armstrong 57'

Ruben Rodrigues 28'

9/21/2024

Championship · Round 6Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bristol City41%

×Draw26%

Oxford United33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.25

Bristol City

1.41

Oxford United

1.25

Bristol City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 11 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

1.35

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Oxford United

1.16

allows per match

Bristol City

1.35

Oxford United

1.53

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.01on par

Oxford United-0.07on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

67%

Bristol City or Oxford United

74%

Draw or Oxford United

59%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

19%

Oxford United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

76%

Bristol City 2+ goals

41%

Bristol City 3+ goals

17%

Oxford United 1+ goals

71%

Oxford United 2+ goals

36%

Oxford United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

55%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 37 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Oxford United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Oxford United attack 1.16 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol City scores more

41%

level

26%

Oxford United scores more

33%

Bristol City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Twine

Bristol City · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

Joe Williams

11'

Idris El Mizouni

28'

Ruben Rodrigues↳ S. Dembélé

44'

W. Vaulks← J. McEachran

46'

Y. Hirakawa← J. Williams

53'

Ciaron Brown

57'

S. Armstrong↳ J. Knight

65'

N. Wells← S. Armstrong

66'

Elliott Moore

68'

D. Scarlett← Ruben Rodrigues

74'

Will Vaulks

76'

N. WellsPenalty

81'

K. Edwards← S. Dembélé

81'

M. Ebiowei← T. Goodrham

89'

C. Pring← A. Mehmeti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolOxford

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots7

2.32Expected Goals (xG)1.74

5Corners1

16Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots7

6On Target2

8Off Target4

5Blocked1

14Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

455Total Passes368

385Accurate Passes276

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.06Goals Prevented0.06

Discipline

16Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3