Oxford United 1–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Oxford United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blackburn

J. Donley 34'

3/11/2026

Championship · Round 37Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Oxford United41%

×Draw28%

Blackburn32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oxford UnitedExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.11

Oxford United

1.29

Blackburn

1.11

Oxford United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 55 away

1.21

creates per match

0.98

1.25

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Oxford United

1.21

Blackburn

0.98

allows per match

Oxford United

1.25

Blackburn

1.38

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Oxford United+0.19scores more

Blackburn+0.02on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw

68%

Oxford United or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

59%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+

18%

Blackburn wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals

72%

Oxford United 2+ goals

37%

Oxford United 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

67%

Blackburn 2+ goals

30%

Blackburn 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)

56%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 35 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.21 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Blackburn attack 0.98 + Oxford United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oxford United scores more

41%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

32%

Oxford United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

J. Currie

Oxford United · D

8.2

Match Events

27'

Sean McLoughlin

34'

J. Donley

59'

Y. Ohashi← M. Baradji

73'

N. Prelec← W. Lankshear

73'

T. Cantwell← M. Jorgensen

73'

O. Afolayan← D. De Neve

78'

W. Vaulks← Y. E. Konak

78'

B. Spencer← M. Peart-Harris

79'

S. Tavares← E. Cashin

87'

M. Harris← S. Mills

87'

J. McDonnell← J. Donley

89'

Hayden Carter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OxfordBlackburn

Overview

32%Possession68%

14Total Shots10

1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.65

6Corners4

3Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots10

7On Target2

5Off Target3

2Blocked5

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

32%Possession68%

232Total Passes516

142Accurate Passes421

61%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.09Goals Prevented0.09

Discipline

3Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4