Blackburn 2–1 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Oxford United

A. Sigurðsson 83'

J. Rankin-Costello 45+2'

M. Harris 44'

8/24/2024

Championship · Round 3Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Blackburn48%

×Draw26%

Oxford United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.02

Blackburn

1.48

Oxford United

1.02

Blackburn creates 45% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 34 away

1.31

creates per match

0.97

1.06

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Oxford United

0.97

allows per match

Blackburn

1.06

Oxford United

1.66

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less

Oxford United+0.09on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

74%

Blackburn or Oxford United

74%

Draw or Oxford United

52%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

24%

Oxford United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

77%

Blackburn 2+ goals

43%

Blackburn 3+ goals

19%

Oxford United 1+ goals

64%

Oxford United 2+ goals

27%

Oxford United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

65%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Oxford United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Oxford United defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Oxford United attack 0.97 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blackburn scores more

48%

level

26%

Oxford United scores more

26%

Blackburn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Rankin-Costello

Blackburn · M

7.5

Match Events

37'

Sondre Tronstad

44'

M. Harris↳ M. Phillips

45+2'

J. Rankin-Costello

52'

M. Gueye← R. Hedges

57'

Peter Kioso

58'

P. Płacheta← Ruben Rodrigues

65'

A. Weimann← J. Rankin-Costello

71'

G. Leigh← M. Phillips

76'

A. Sigurðsson← T. Dolan

77'

Lewis Travis

82'

L. Sibley← I. El Mizouni

82'

O. Dale← P. Płacheta

83'

A. Sigurðsson↳ M. Gueye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnOxford

Overview

47%Possession53%

18Total Shots12

0.82Expected Goals (xG)0.89

7Corners5

14Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots12

4On Target3

6Off Target5

8Blocked4

13Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

441Total Passes509

346Accurate Passes416

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.28Goals Prevented-0.28

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0