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Ovetense FC vs Guairena FC — Division Intermedia 2018

Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
FT
2 – 1
Guairena FC
Guairena FC
8/24/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 18Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ovetense FC37%
×Draw31%
Guairena FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ovetense FC
1.04
Guairena FC
0.94

Ovetense FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ovetense FC
1.00
Guairena FC
0.98

allows per match

Ovetense FC
0.90
Guairena FC
1.08

finishing

Ovetense FC+0.00on par
Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ovetense FC ↓

Guairena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ovetense FC or draw
68%
Ovetense FC or Guairena FC
69%
Draw or Guairena FC
63%

Winning margin

Ovetense FC wins by 2+
15%
Guairena FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ovetense FC 1+ goals
65%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
28%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
9%
Guairena FC 1+ goals
61%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
24%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
54%
Guairena FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Guairena FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Guairena FC attack 0.98 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ovetense FC scores more
37%
level
31%
Guairena FC scores more
32%

Ovetense FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ovetense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ovetense FC vs Guairena FC

Ovetense FC beat Guairena FC 2-1 in Division Intermedia on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo).