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Guairena FC vs Ovetense FC — Division Intermedia 2018

Guairena FC
Guairena FC
FT
1 – 1
Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
5/12/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 3Estadio Parque del Guairá (Villarrica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guairena FC56%
×Draw25%
Ovetense FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guairena FC
1.65
Ovetense FC
0.87

Guairena FC creates 90% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guairena FC
1.60
Ovetense FC
0.90

allows per match

Guairena FC
0.84
Ovetense FC
1.70

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par
Ovetense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

Ovetense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw
80%
Guairena FC or Ovetense FC
75%
Draw or Ovetense FC
44%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+
30%
Ovetense FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals
81%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
49%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
23%
Ovetense FC 1+ goals
58%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
22%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)
74%
Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Ovetense FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 1.60 + Ovetense FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ovetense FC attack 0.90 + Guairena FC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Guairena FC scores more
56%
level
25%
Ovetense FC scores more
20%

Guairena FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guairena FC vs Ovetense FC

Guairena FC and Ovetense FC drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Parque del Guairá (Villarrica).