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Ovetense FC vs Deportivo Liberacion — Division Intermedia 2018

Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
FT
0 – 2
Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
4/8/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 4Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ovetense FC45%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Liberacion26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ovetense FC
1.27
Deportivo Liberacion
0.89

Ovetense FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ovetense FC
1.00
Deportivo Liberacion
0.87

allows per match

Ovetense FC
0.90
Deportivo Liberacion
1.53

finishing

Ovetense FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ovetense FC ↓

Deportivo Liberacion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ovetense FC or draw
74%
Ovetense FC or Deportivo Liberacion
71%
Draw or Deportivo Liberacion
55%

Winning margin

Ovetense FC wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ovetense FC 1+ goals
72%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
36%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Deportivo Liberacion away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Liberacion attack 0.87 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ovetense FC scores more
45%
level
29%
Deportivo Liberacion scores more
26%

Ovetense FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ovetense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ovetense FC vs Deportivo Liberacion

Deportivo Liberacion beat Ovetense FC 2-0 in Division Intermedia on April 8, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo).