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Deportivo Liberacion vs Ovetense FC — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
FT
2 – 1
Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
7/14/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion48%
×Draw25%
Ovetense FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Liberacion
1.61
Ovetense FC
1.15

Deportivo Liberacion creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.53
Ovetense FC
0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.40
Ovetense FC
1.70

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par
Ovetense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

Ovetense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw
73%
Deportivo Liberacion or Ovetense FC
75%
Draw or Ovetense FC
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
25%
Ovetense FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
48%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
22%
Ovetense FC 1+ goals
68%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
32%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
64%
Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Ovetense FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + Ovetense FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ovetense FC attack 0.90 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more
48%
level
25%
Ovetense FC scores more
27%

Deportivo Liberacion at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Liberacion 2–1 Ovetense FC

Deportivo Liberacion beat Ovetense FC 2-1 in Division Intermedia on July 14, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación).