Ourense CF vs Choco: Preview & Prediction

Ourense CF

CANC

00:00

Choco

4/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ourense CF55%

×Draw25%

Choco20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ourense CFExpected goals in this matchChoco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.88

Ourense CF

1.65

Choco

0.88

Ourense CF creates 88% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 59 away

1.87

creates per match

0.92

0.83

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ourense CF

1.87

Choco

0.92

allows per match

Ourense CF

0.83

Choco

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Choco →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw

80%

Ourense CF or Choco

75%

Draw or Choco

45%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+

30%

Choco wins by 2+

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

81%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

49%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

23%

Choco 1+ goals

59%

Choco 2+ goals

22%

Choco 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

74%

Choco (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.87 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Choco attack 0.92 + Ourense CF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ourense CF scores more

55%

level

25%

Choco scores more

20%

Ourense CF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ourense CF host Choco

April 9, 2020: Ourense CF take on Choco in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ourense CF host Choco at Estadio O Couto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Ourense CF vs Choco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Ourense CF host Choco