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Choco vs Ourense CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Choco
Choco
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Choco36%
×Draw26%
Ourense CF37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Choco
1.29
Ourense CF
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 47 away

creates per match

Choco
1.55
Ourense CF
1.47

allows per match

Choco
1.16
Ourense CF
1.02

finishing

Choco+0.00on par
Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Choco ↓

Ourense CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Choco or draw
63%
Choco or Ourense CF
74%
Draw or Ourense CF
64%

Winning margin

Choco wins by 2+
16%
Ourense CF wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Choco 1+ goals
72%
Choco 2+ goals
37%
Choco 3+ goals
14%
Ourense CF 1+ goals
73%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
38%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Choco (draw refunded)
49%
Ourense CF (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Choco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Choco attack 1.55 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + Choco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Choco scores more
36%
level
26%
Ourense CF scores more
37%

Ourense CF at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Choco 2–0 Ourense CF

Choco beat Ourense CF 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Santa Mariña in Redondela.