Ourense CF 2–1 CD Lugo B: Result & Stats

Ourense CF

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

CD Lugo B

2/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ourense CF49%

×Draw25%

CD Lugo B25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ourense CFExpected goals in this matchCD Lugo B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.05

Ourense CF

1.57

CD Lugo B

1.05

Ourense CF creates 50% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 94 away

1.87

creates per match

1.28

0.83

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ourense CF

1.87

CD Lugo B

1.28

allows per match

Ourense CF

0.83

CD Lugo B

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par

CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

CD Lugo B →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw

75%

Ourense CF or CD Lugo B

75%

Draw or CD Lugo B

51%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+

25%

CD Lugo B wins by 2+

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

79%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

46%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

21%

CD Lugo B 1+ goals

65%

CD Lugo B 2+ goals

28%

CD Lugo B 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

66%

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

CD Lugo B away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.87 + CD Lugo B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

CD Lugo B attack 1.28 + Ourense CF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ourense CF scores more

49%

level

25%

CD Lugo B scores more

25%

Ourense CF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff