CD Lugo B 0–1 Ourense CF: Result & Stats

CD Lugo B

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ourense CF

9/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio do Polvorín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

CD Lugo B39%

×Draw28%

Ourense CF33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Lugo BExpected goals in this matchOurense CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

CD Lugo B

1.25

Ourense CF

1.13

CD Lugo B creates 11% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 47 away

1.48

creates per match

1.47

0.78

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

CD Lugo B

1.48

Ourense CF

1.47

allows per match

CD Lugo B

0.78

Ourense CF

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lugo B ↓

Ourense CF →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CD Lugo B or draw

67%

CD Lugo B or Ourense CF

72%

Draw or Ourense CF

61%

Winning margin

CD Lugo B wins by 2+

17%

Ourense CF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CD Lugo B 1+ goals

71%

CD Lugo B 2+ goals

36%

CD Lugo B 3+ goals

13%

Ourense CF 1+ goals

68%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

31%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)

54%

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CD Lugo B at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CD Lugo B attack 1.48 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + CD Lugo B defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

CD Lugo B scores more

39%

level

28%

Ourense CF scores more

33%

CD Lugo B at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CD Lugo B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff