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Ourense CF vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ourense CF
Ourense CF
CANC
22:00
Barco
Barco
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ourense CF52%
×Draw25%
Barco23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ourense CF
1.65
Barco
1.02

Ourense CF creates 62% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 78 away

creates per match

Ourense CF
1.87
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Ourense CF
0.83
Barco
1.42

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw
77%
Ourense CF or Barco
75%
Draw or Barco
48%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+
28%
Barco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals
81%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
49%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
23%
Barco 1+ goals
64%
Barco 2+ goals
27%
Barco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)
69%
Barco (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.87 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Barco attack 1.21 + Ourense CF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ourense CF scores more
52%
level
25%
Barco scores more
23%

Ourense CF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ourense CF host Barco

May 16, 2020: Ourense CF take on Barco in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ourense CF host Barco at Estadio O Couto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.