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Barco vs Ourense CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barco
Barco
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Calabagueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Barco34%
×Draw27%
Ourense CF39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barco
1.17
Ourense CF
1.29

Ourense CF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 47 away

creates per match

Barco
1.32
Ourense CF
1.47

allows per match

Barco
1.10
Ourense CF
1.02

finishing

Barco+0.00on par
Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barco ↓

Ourense CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barco or draw
61%
Barco or Ourense CF
73%
Draw or Ourense CF
66%

Winning margin

Barco wins by 2+
14%
Ourense CF wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Barco 1+ goals
69%
Barco 2+ goals
33%
Barco 3+ goals
11%
Ourense CF 1+ goals
72%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
37%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barco (draw refunded)
46%
Ourense CF (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barco at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barco attack 1.32 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + Barco defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barco scores more
34%
level
27%
Ourense CF scores more
39%

Ourense CF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Barco 0–2 Ourense CF

Ourense CF beat Barco 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Calabagueiros in O Barco de Valdeorras.