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Ourense CF vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ourense CF
Ourense CF
CANC
00:00
Arzúa
Arzúa
3/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ourense CF60%
×Draw23%
Arzúa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ourense CF
1.80
Arzúa
0.84

Ourense CF creates 114% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 79 away

creates per match

Ourense CF
1.87
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Ourense CF
0.83
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw
83%
Ourense CF or Arzúa
77%
Draw or Arzúa
40%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+
35%
Arzúa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals
83%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
54%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
27%
Arzúa 1+ goals
57%
Arzúa 2+ goals
21%
Arzúa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)
78%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.87 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.80

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Ourense CF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ourense CF scores more
60%
level
23%
Arzúa scores more
17%

Ourense CF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ourense CF host Arzúa

March 19, 2020: Ourense CF take on Arzúa in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ourense CF host Arzúa at Estadio O Couto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.