Arzúa 2–2 Ourense CF: Result & Stats

Arzúa

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ourense CF

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Arzúa34%

×Draw27%

Ourense CF39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArzúaExpected goals in this matchOurense CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.27

Arzúa

1.17

Ourense CF

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 47 away

1.31

creates per match

1.47

1.08

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Arzúa

1.31

Ourense CF

1.47

allows per match

Arzúa

1.08

Ourense CF

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Ourense CF →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw

61%

Arzúa or Ourense CF

73%

Draw or Ourense CF

66%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+

14%

Ourense CF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals

69%

Arzúa 2+ goals

33%

Arzúa 3+ goals

11%

Ourense CF 1+ goals

72%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

36%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)

47%

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arzúa scores more

34%

level

27%

Ourense CF scores more

39%

Ourense CF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff