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Oued Ellil vs Kalaâ Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
1/4/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Oued Ellil51%
×Draw29%
Kalaâ Sport20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oued Ellil
1.30
Kalaâ Sport
0.69

Oued Ellil creates 88% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 61 away

creates per match

Oued Ellil
1.09
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

allows per match

Oued Ellil
0.67
Kalaâ Sport
1.51

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw
80%
Oued Ellil or Kalaâ Sport
71%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
49%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+
24%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals
73%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
37%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
14%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
50%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
15%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
72%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oued Ellil scores more
51%
level
29%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
20%

Oued Ellil at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oued Ellil vs Kalaâ Sport

Oued Ellil beat Kalaâ Sport 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Ellil.