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Kalaâ Sport vs Oued Ellil — Ligue 2 2020

Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
5/24/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kalaâ Sport48%
×Draw29%
Oued Ellil23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalaâ Sport
1.29
Oued Ellil
0.79

Kalaâ Sport creates 63% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kalaâ Sport
1.20
Oued Ellil
0.65

allows per match

Kalaâ Sport
0.93
Oued Ellil
1.37

finishing

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par
Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalaâ Sport ↓

Oued Ellil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kalaâ Sport or draw
77%
Kalaâ Sport or Oued Ellil
71%
Draw or Oued Ellil
52%

Winning margin

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
22%
Oued Ellil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
72%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
37%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
14%
Oued Ellil 1+ goals
55%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
19%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
68%
Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalaâ Sport at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

Oued Ellil away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalaâ Sport attack 1.20 + Oued Ellil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Oued Ellil attack 0.65 + Kalaâ Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kalaâ Sport scores more
48%
level
29%
Oued Ellil scores more
23%

Kalaâ Sport at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kalaâ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalaâ Sport vs Oued Ellil

Kalaâ Sport and Oued Ellil drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Kalâa Seghira in Kalâa Seghira.