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Oued Ellil vs EGS Gafsa — Ligue 2 2020

Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
FT
1 – 0
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
4/4/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Oued Ellil46%
×Draw30%
EGS Gafsa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oued Ellil
1.19
EGS Gafsa
0.78

Oued Ellil creates 53% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

creates per match

Oued Ellil
1.09
EGS Gafsa
0.89

allows per match

Oued Ellil
0.67
EGS Gafsa
1.28

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw
76%
Oued Ellil or EGS Gafsa
70%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
54%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+
20%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals
70%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
33%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
12%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
54%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
18%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
65%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oued Ellil scores more
46%
level
30%
EGS Gafsa scores more
24%

Oued Ellil at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oued Ellil vs EGS Gafsa

Oued Ellil beat EGS Gafsa 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Ellil.