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EGS Gafsa vs Oued Ellil — Ligue 2 2020

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
1 – 0
Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
2/27/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

EGS Gafsa59%
×Draw26%
Oued Ellil15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.50
Oued Ellil
0.60

EGS Gafsa creates 150% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 46 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
Oued Ellil
0.65

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.55
Oued Ellil
1.37

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Oued Ellil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
85%
EGS Gafsa or Oued Ellil
74%
Draw or Oued Ellil
41%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
31%
Oued Ellil wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
78%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
44%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
19%
Oued Ellil 1+ goals
45%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
12%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
80%
Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Oued Ellil away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Oued Ellil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Oued Ellil attack 0.65 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
59%
level
26%
Oued Ellil scores more
15%

EGS Gafsa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EGS Gafsa vs Oued Ellil

EGS Gafsa beat Oued Ellil 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 7 Novembre in Gafsa.