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Oued Ellil vs CS Tabarka — Ligue 2 2020

Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CS Tabarka
CS Tabarka
10/14/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Oued Ellil49%
×Draw30%
CS Tabarka21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oued Ellil
1.22
CS Tabarka
0.69

Oued Ellil creates 77% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Oued Ellil
1.09
CS Tabarka
0.71

allows per match

Oued Ellil
0.67
CS Tabarka
1.35

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par
CS Tabarka+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

CS Tabarka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw
79%
Oued Ellil or CS Tabarka
70%
Draw or CS Tabarka
51%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+
22%
CS Tabarka wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals
70%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
34%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
12%
CS Tabarka 1+ goals
50%
CS Tabarka 2+ goals
15%
CS Tabarka 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
70%
CS Tabarka (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

CS Tabarka away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + CS Tabarka defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

CS Tabarka attack 0.71 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oued Ellil scores more
49%
level
30%
CS Tabarka scores more
21%

Oued Ellil at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Oued Ellil 1–2 CS Tabarka

CS Tabarka beat Oued Ellil 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Ellil.