CS Tabarka 1–0 Oued Ellil: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

CS Tabarka

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oued Ellil

2/11/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade Municipal Tabarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CS Tabarka39%

×Draw31%

Oued Ellil30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS TabarkaExpected goals in this matchOued Ellil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.92

CS Tabarka

1.09

Oued Ellil

0.92

CS Tabarka creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 46 away

0.82

creates per match

0.65

1.18

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

CS Tabarka

0.82

Oued Ellil

0.65

allows per match

CS Tabarka

1.18

Oued Ellil

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Tabarka+0.00on par

Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Tabarka ↓

Oued Ellil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CS Tabarka or draw

70%

CS Tabarka or Oued Ellil

69%

Draw or Oued Ellil

61%

Winning margin

CS Tabarka wins by 2+

16%

Oued Ellil wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CS Tabarka 1+ goals

66%

CS Tabarka 2+ goals

30%

CS Tabarka 3+ goals

10%

Oued Ellil 1+ goals

60%

Oued Ellil 2+ goals

23%

Oued Ellil 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CS Tabarka (draw refunded)

56%

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Tabarka at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Oued Ellil away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Tabarka attack 0.82 + Oued Ellil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.09

Oued Ellil attack 0.65 + CS Tabarka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CS Tabarka scores more

39%

level

31%

Oued Ellil scores more

30%

CS Tabarka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CS Tabarka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff