Oued Ellil 1–0 AS Gabes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Oued Ellil

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AS Gabes

M. Haythem 57'

2/12/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Oued Ellil46%

×Draw30%

AS Gabes24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oued EllilExpected goals in this matchAS Gabes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.78

Oued Ellil

1.19

AS Gabes

0.78

Oued Ellil creates 53% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

1.09

creates per match

0.89

0.67

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Oued Ellil

1.09

AS Gabes

0.89

allows per match

Oued Ellil

0.67

AS Gabes

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oued Ellil+0.00on par

AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oued Ellil ↓

AS Gabes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Oued Ellil or draw

76%

Oued Ellil or AS Gabes

70%

Draw or AS Gabes

54%

Winning margin

Oued Ellil wins by 2+

20%

AS Gabes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Oued Ellil 1+ goals

70%

Oued Ellil 2+ goals

33%

Oued Ellil 3+ goals

12%

AS Gabes 1+ goals

54%

AS Gabes 2+ goals

18%

AS Gabes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Oued Ellil (draw refunded)

65%

AS Gabes (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oued Ellil at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oued Ellil attack 1.09 + AS Gabes defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

AS Gabes attack 0.89 + Oued Ellil defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oued Ellil scores more

46%

level

30%

AS Gabes scores more

24%

Oued Ellil at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oued Ellil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

M. Haythem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff