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AS Gabes vs Oued Ellil — Ligue 2 2020

AS Gabes
AS Gabes
FT
1 – 0
Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
R. Tahi 82'
11/14/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AS Gabes57%
×Draw27%
Oued Ellil16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Gabes
1.43
Oued Ellil
0.61

AS Gabes creates 134% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 46 away

creates per match

AS Gabes
1.49
Oued Ellil
0.65

allows per match

AS Gabes
0.57
Oued Ellil
1.37

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par
Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

Oued Ellil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw
84%
AS Gabes or Oued Ellil
73%
Draw or Oued Ellil
43%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+
29%
Oued Ellil wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals
76%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
42%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
17%
Oued Ellil 1+ goals
46%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
13%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)
78%
Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Oued Ellil away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.49 + Oued Ellil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Oued Ellil attack 0.65 + AS Gabes defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

AS Gabes scores more
57%
level
27%
Oued Ellil scores more
16%

AS Gabes at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
R. Kheraifi
82'
R. Tahi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Gabes vs Oued Ellil

AS Gabes beat Oued Ellil 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 14, 2021.

Goals: R. Tahi (82').

The match was played at Stade de Zrig in Gabès.