Ottawa Fury 2–0 Toronto II: Result & Stats

Ottawa Fury

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Toronto II

7/29/2017

USL Championship · Round 28TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ottawa Fury56%

×Draw22%

Toronto II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ottawa FuryExpected goals in this matchToronto II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.10

Ottawa Fury

1.90

Toronto II

1.10

Ottawa Fury creates 73% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 20 away

1.29

creates per match

1.35

0.86

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Ottawa Fury

1.29

Toronto II

1.35

allows per match

Ottawa Fury

0.86

Toronto II

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Toronto II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Fury ↓

Toronto II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ottawa Fury or draw

78%

Ottawa Fury or Toronto II

78%

Draw or Toronto II

44%

Winning margin

Ottawa Fury wins by 2+

32%

Toronto II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ottawa Fury 1+ goals

85%

Ottawa Fury 2+ goals

56%

Ottawa Fury 3+ goals

29%

Toronto II 1+ goals

67%

Toronto II 2+ goals

30%

Toronto II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)

72%

Toronto II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Fury at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 35 matches

Toronto II away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Fury attack 1.29 + Toronto II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Toronto II attack 1.35 + Ottawa Fury defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ottawa Fury scores more

56%

level

22%

Toronto II scores more

22%

Ottawa Fury at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ottawa Fury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff