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Toronto II vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Toronto II
Toronto II
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
9/7/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 46Lamport Stadium (Toronto, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Toronto II33%
×Draw25%
Ottawa Fury42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toronto II
1.32
Ottawa Fury
1.52

Ottawa Fury creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 34 away

creates per match

Toronto II
1.00
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Toronto II
1.93
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Toronto II+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto II ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Toronto II or draw
58%
Toronto II or Ottawa Fury
75%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
67%

Winning margin

Toronto II wins by 2+
14%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Toronto II 1+ goals
73%
Toronto II 2+ goals
38%
Toronto II 3+ goals
15%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
78%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
45%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Toronto II (draw refunded)
44%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto II attack 1.00 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Toronto II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Toronto II scores more
33%
level
25%
Ottawa Fury scores more
42%

Ottawa Fury at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ottawa Fury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Toronto II 3–4 Ottawa Fury

Ottawa Fury beat Toronto II 4-3 in USL Championship on September 7, 2018.

The match was played at Lamport Stadium (Toronto, Ontario).