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Ottawa Fury vs North Carolina — USL Championship 2018

Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
North Carolina
North Carolina
5/12/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 18TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ottawa Fury43%
×Draw28%
North Carolina30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ottawa Fury
1.32
North Carolina
1.06

Ottawa Fury creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 74 away

creates per match

Ottawa Fury
1.26
North Carolina
1.24

allows per match

Ottawa Fury
0.88
North Carolina
1.39

finishing

Ottawa Fury+0.00on par
North Carolina+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Fury ↓

North Carolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ottawa Fury or draw
70%
Ottawa Fury or North Carolina
72%
Draw or North Carolina
57%

Winning margin

Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
20%
North Carolina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
73%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
38%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
15%
North Carolina 1+ goals
65%
North Carolina 2+ goals
29%
North Carolina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
59%
North Carolina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Fury at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

North Carolina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Fury attack 1.26 + North Carolina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

North Carolina attack 1.24 + Ottawa Fury defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ottawa Fury scores more
43%
level
28%
North Carolina scores more
30%

Ottawa Fury at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ottawa Fury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ottawa Fury vs North Carolina

Ottawa Fury beat North Carolina 2-1 in USL Championship on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario).