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North Carolina vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

North Carolina
North Carolina
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
9/28/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 55Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

North Carolina50%
×Draw24%
Ottawa Fury26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina
1.74
Ottawa Fury
1.18

North Carolina creates 47% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 34 away

creates per match

North Carolina
1.83
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

North Carolina
1.23
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

North Carolina+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

North Carolina or draw
74%
North Carolina or Ottawa Fury
76%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
50%

Winning margin

North Carolina wins by 2+
27%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

North Carolina 1+ goals
82%
North Carolina 2+ goals
52%
North Carolina 3+ goals
25%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
69%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
33%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

North Carolina (draw refunded)
66%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina attack 1.83 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.74

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + North Carolina defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

North Carolina scores more
50%
level
24%
Ottawa Fury scores more
26%

North Carolina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Carolina vs Ottawa Fury

North Carolina beat Ottawa Fury 3-1 in USL Championship on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Sahlen's Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, North Carolina).