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Ottawa Fury vs New York RB II — USL Championship 2018

Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
New York RB II
New York RB II
5/8/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 17TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ottawa Fury52%
×Draw24%
New York RB II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ottawa Fury
1.75
New York RB II
1.10

Ottawa Fury creates 59% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 79 away

creates per match

Ottawa Fury
1.26
New York RB II
1.33

allows per match

Ottawa Fury
0.88
New York RB II
2.23

finishing

Ottawa Fury+0.00on par
New York RB II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Fury ↓

New York RB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ottawa Fury or draw
76%
Ottawa Fury or New York RB II
76%
Draw or New York RB II
48%

Winning margin

Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
29%
New York RB II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
83%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
52%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
25%
New York RB II 1+ goals
67%
New York RB II 2+ goals
30%
New York RB II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
69%
New York RB II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Fury at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

New York RB II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.23 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Fury attack 1.26 + New York RB II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.75

New York RB II attack 1.33 + Ottawa Fury defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ottawa Fury scores more
52%
level
24%
New York RB II scores more
24%

Ottawa Fury at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ottawa Fury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ottawa Fury 1 – 1 New York RB II

Ottawa Fury and New York RB II drew 1-1 in USL Championship on May 8, 2019.

The match was played at TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario).