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New York RB II vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

New York RB II
New York RB II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
8/31/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 44MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field (Montclair, New Jersey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

New York RB II47%
×Draw23%
Ottawa Fury30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB II
1.75
Ottawa Fury
1.36

New York RB II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 34 away

creates per match

New York RB II
1.84
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

New York RB II
1.60
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

New York RB II+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB II ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

New York RB II or draw
70%
New York RB II or Ottawa Fury
77%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
53%

Winning margin

New York RB II wins by 2+
25%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

New York RB II 1+ goals
83%
New York RB II 2+ goals
52%
New York RB II 3+ goals
25%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
74%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
39%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

New York RB II (draw refunded)
61%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB II attack 1.84 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + New York RB II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

New York RB II scores more
47%
level
23%
Ottawa Fury scores more
30%

New York RB II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "New York RB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New York RB II 1 – 0 Ottawa Fury

New York RB II beat Ottawa Fury 1-0 in USL Championship on August 31, 2018.

The match was played at MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field (Montclair, New Jersey).