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Ottawa Fury vs Hartford Athletic — USL Championship 2018

Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
9/22/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 53TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ottawa Fury50%
×Draw25%
Hartford Athletic25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ottawa Fury
1.59
Hartford Athletic
1.06

Ottawa Fury creates 50% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ottawa Fury
1.26
Hartford Athletic
1.25

allows per match

Ottawa Fury
0.88
Hartford Athletic
1.93

finishing

Ottawa Fury+0.00on par
Hartford Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Fury ↓

Hartford Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ottawa Fury or draw
75%
Ottawa Fury or Hartford Athletic
75%
Draw or Hartford Athletic
50%

Winning margin

Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
26%
Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
80%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
47%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
21%
Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
65%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
29%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
66%
Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Fury at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Hartford Athletic away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.93 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Fury attack 1.26 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hartford Athletic attack 1.25 + Ottawa Fury defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ottawa Fury scores more
50%
level
25%
Hartford Athletic scores more
25%

Ottawa Fury at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ottawa Fury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ottawa Fury vs Hartford Athletic

Ottawa Fury beat Hartford Athletic 4-1 in USL Championship on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario).