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Hartford Athletic vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
5/25/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 21Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field (East Hartford, Connecticut)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hartford Athletic44%
×Draw25%
Ottawa Fury32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartford Athletic
1.58
Ottawa Fury
1.31

Hartford Athletic creates 21% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hartford Athletic
1.51
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Hartford Athletic
1.50
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartford Athletic ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hartford Athletic or draw
68%
Hartford Athletic or Ottawa Fury
75%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
56%

Winning margin

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
22%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
79%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
47%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
21%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
73%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
38%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
58%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartford Athletic at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.50 · 116 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartford Athletic attack 1.51 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hartford Athletic scores more
44%
level
25%
Ottawa Fury scores more
32%

Hartford Athletic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hartford Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hartford Athletic vs Ottawa Fury

Hartford Athletic and Ottawa Fury drew 1-1 in USL Championship on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field (East Hartford, Connecticut).