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Ottawa Fury vs FC Cincinnati — USL Championship 2018

Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
4/28/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 11TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ottawa Fury30%
×Draw26%
FC Cincinnati43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ottawa Fury
1.16
FC Cincinnati
1.44

FC Cincinnati creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ottawa Fury
1.26
FC Cincinnati
2.00

allows per match

Ottawa Fury
0.88
FC Cincinnati
1.06

finishing

Ottawa Fury+0.00on par
FC Cincinnati+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ottawa Fury ↓

FC Cincinnati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ottawa Fury or draw
57%
Ottawa Fury or FC Cincinnati
74%
Draw or FC Cincinnati
70%

Winning margin

Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
12%
FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
69%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
32%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
11%
FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
76%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
42%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
41%
FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ottawa Fury at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ottawa Fury attack 1.26 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

FC Cincinnati attack 2.00 + Ottawa Fury defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ottawa Fury scores more
30%
level
26%
FC Cincinnati scores more
43%

FC Cincinnati at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ottawa Fury vs FC Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati beat Ottawa Fury 3-0 in USL Championship on April 28, 2018.

The match was played at TD Place Stadium (Ottawa, Ontario).