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FC Cincinnati vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
6/30/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 27Nippert Stadium (Cincinnati, Ohio)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FC Cincinnati57%
×Draw22%
Ottawa Fury20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati
1.88
Ottawa Fury
1.03

FC Cincinnati creates 83% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati
2.11
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

FC Cincinnati
0.94
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw
80%
FC Cincinnati or Ottawa Fury
78%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
43%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
33%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
85%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
56%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
29%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
64%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
28%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
74%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 2.11 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + FC Cincinnati defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more
57%
level
22%
Ottawa Fury scores more
20%

FC Cincinnati at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Cincinnati vs Ottawa Fury

FC Cincinnati beat Ottawa Fury 2-0 in USL Championship on June 30, 2018.

The match was played at Nippert Stadium (Cincinnati, Ohio).