OTP 1–2 Kuopion Elo: Result & Stats

OTP

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kuopion Elo

4/20/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 2Heinäpään tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

OTP53%

×Draw20%

Kuopion Elo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OTPExpected goals in this matchKuopion Elo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.54

OTP

2.24

Kuopion Elo

1.54

OTP creates 45% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

1.71

creates per match

1.27

1.81

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

OTP

1.71

Kuopion Elo

1.27

allows per match

OTP

1.81

Kuopion Elo

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OTP+0.00on par

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OTP ↓

Kuopion Elo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

OTP or draw

74%

OTP or Kuopion Elo

80%

Draw or Kuopion Elo

47%

Winning margin

OTP wins by 2+

32%

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

OTP 1+ goals

89%

OTP 2+ goals

65%

OTP 3+ goals

38%

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals

79%

Kuopion Elo 2+ goals

45%

Kuopion Elo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

OTP (draw refunded)

67%

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OTP at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.81 · 42 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OTP attack 1.71 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.24

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + OTP defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

OTP scores more

53%

level

20%

Kuopion Elo scores more

26%

OTP at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "OTP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff