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Kuopion Elo vs OTP — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
OTP
OTP
8/5/2023Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 13Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kuopion Elo47%
×Draw22%
OTP31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuopion Elo
1.90
OTP
1.52

Kuopion Elo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 42 away

creates per match

Kuopion Elo
2.00
OTP
1.29

allows per match

Kuopion Elo
1.75
OTP
1.79

finishing

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par
OTP+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuopion Elo ↓

OTP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kuopion Elo or draw
69%
Kuopion Elo or OTP
78%
Draw or OTP
53%

Winning margin

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
26%
OTP wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
85%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
56%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
29%
OTP 1+ goals
78%
OTP 2+ goals
45%
OTP 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
60%
OTP (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuopion Elo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

OTP away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuopion Elo attack 2.00 + OTP defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

OTP attack 1.29 + Kuopion Elo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kuopion Elo scores more
47%
level
22%
OTP scores more
31%

Kuopion Elo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kuopion Elo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: Kuopion Elo 0–1 OTP

OTP beat Kuopion Elo 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Väre Areena in Kuopio.