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Otok vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Otok
Otok
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
2/26/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 19Športski Centar Gola Brda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Otok52%
×Draw21%
Hrvatski vitez27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otok
2.08
Hrvatski vitez
1.44

Otok creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 93 away

creates per match

Otok
2.18
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Otok
1.76
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Otok+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otok ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Otok or draw
73%
Otok or Hrvatski vitez
79%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
48%

Winning margin

Otok wins by 2+
31%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Otok 1+ goals
87%
Otok 2+ goals
61%
Otok 3+ goals
34%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
76%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
42%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Otok (draw refunded)
66%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otok at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otok attack 2.18 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.08

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Otok defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Otok scores more
52%
level
21%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
27%

Otok at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Otok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Otok vs Hrvatski vitez

Hrvatski vitez beat Otok 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Športski Centar Gola Brda in Otok.