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Hrvatski vitez vs Otok — Third NL - Jug 2019

Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
FT
2 – 1
Otok
Otok
9/4/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 2Gradski stadion Gordan Demo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hrvatski vitez69%
×Draw18%
Otok13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski vitez
2.35
Otok
0.92

Hrvatski vitez creates 155% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hrvatski vitez
1.99
Otok
0.88

allows per match

Hrvatski vitez
0.95
Otok
2.70

finishing

Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par
Otok+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski vitez ↓

Otok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hrvatski vitez or draw
87%
Hrvatski vitez or Otok
82%
Draw or Otok
31%

Winning margin

Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
46%
Otok wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
90%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
68%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
41%
Otok 1+ goals
60%
Otok 2+ goals
23%
Otok 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
84%
Otok (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski vitez at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Otok away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.99 + Otok defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.35

Otok attack 0.88 + Hrvatski vitez defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hrvatski vitez scores more
69%
level
18%
Otok scores more
13%

Hrvatski vitez at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hrvatski vitez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Hrvatski vitez 2–1 Otok

Hrvatski vitez beat Otok 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Gordan Demo in Posedarje.