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Otok vs HNK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Otok
Otok
FT
3 – 3
HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
10/27/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 12Športski Centar Gola Brda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Otok38%
×Draw23%
HNK Zadar39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Otok
1.64
HNK Zadar
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 77 away

creates per match

Otok
2.18
HNK Zadar
1.58

allows per match

Otok
1.76
HNK Zadar
1.09

finishing

Otok+0.00on par
HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Otok ↓

HNK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Otok or draw
61%
Otok or HNK Zadar
77%
Draw or HNK Zadar
62%

Winning margin

Otok wins by 2+
19%
HNK Zadar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Otok 1+ goals
81%
Otok 2+ goals
49%
Otok 3+ goals
23%
HNK Zadar 1+ goals
81%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
50%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Otok (draw refunded)
49%
HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Otok at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Otok attack 2.18 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.64

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + Otok defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Otok scores more
38%
level
23%
HNK Zadar scores more
39%

HNK Zadar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Otok 3 – 3 HNK Zadar

Otok and HNK Zadar drew 3-3 in Third NL - Jug on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Športski Centar Gola Brda in Otok.