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HNK Zadar vs Otok — Third NL - Jug 2019

HNK Zadar
HNK Zadar
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Otok
Otok
4/23/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 29Stadion Stanovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

HNK Zadar78%
×Draw14%
Otok8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Zadar
2.78
Otok
0.81

HNK Zadar creates 243% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 33 away

creates per match

HNK Zadar
2.86
Otok
0.88

allows per match

HNK Zadar
0.75
Otok
2.70

finishing

HNK Zadar+0.00on par
Otok+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Zadar ↓

Otok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

HNK Zadar or draw
92%
HNK Zadar or Otok
86%
Draw or Otok
22%

Winning margin

HNK Zadar wins by 2+
57%
Otok wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

HNK Zadar 1+ goals
94%
HNK Zadar 2+ goals
76%
HNK Zadar 3+ goals
51%
Otok 1+ goals
56%
Otok 2+ goals
19%
Otok 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)
90%
Otok (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Zadar at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.75 · 77 matches

Otok away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Zadar attack 2.86 + Otok defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.78

Otok attack 0.88 + HNK Zadar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

HNK Zadar scores more
78%
level
14%
Otok scores more
8%

HNK Zadar at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Zadar vs Otok

HNK Zadar beat Otok 7-0 in Third NL - Jug on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Stanovi in Zadar.