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Othellos vs Nea Salamis — 1. Division 2019

Othellos
Othellos
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
4/7/20241. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 8Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Othellos34%
×Draw26%
Nea Salamis40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Othellos
1.23
Nea Salamis
1.35

Nea Salamis creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 88 away

creates per match

Othellos
0.95
Nea Salamis
1.11

allows per match

Othellos
1.60
Nea Salamis
1.50

finishing

Othellos+0.00on par
Nea Salamis+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Othellos ↓

Nea Salamis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Othellos or draw
60%
Othellos or Nea Salamis
74%
Draw or Nea Salamis
66%

Winning margin

Othellos wins by 2+
14%
Nea Salamis wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Othellos 1+ goals
71%
Othellos 2+ goals
35%
Othellos 3+ goals
13%
Nea Salamis 1+ goals
74%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
39%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Othellos (draw refunded)
46%
Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Othellos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Nea Salamis away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.50 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Othellos attack 0.95 + Nea Salamis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nea Salamis attack 1.11 + Othellos defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Othellos scores more
34%
level
26%
Nea Salamis scores more
40%

Nea Salamis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Othellos vs Nea Salamis

Nea Salamis beat Othellos 3-2 in 1. Division on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.