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Nea Salamis vs Othellos — 1. Division 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Othellos
Othellos
1/7/20241. Division1. Division · Round 18Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Nea Salamis43%
×Draw23%
Othellos34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
1.75
Othellos
1.55

Nea Salamis creates 13% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 20 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
1.26
Othellos
1.45

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.65
Othellos
2.25

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
Othellos+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

Othellos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
66%
Nea Salamis or Othellos
77%
Draw or Othellos
57%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
22%
Othellos wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
83%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
52%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
25%
Othellos 1+ goals
79%
Othellos 2+ goals
46%
Othellos 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
55%
Othellos (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

Othellos away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 1.26 + Othellos defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Othellos attack 1.45 + Nea Salamis defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
43%
level
23%
Othellos scores more
34%

Nea Salamis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nea Salamis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nea Salamis vs Othellos

Nea Salamis beat Othellos 3-2 in 1. Division on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.