Othellos 0–0 AEK Larnaca: Result & Stats

Othellos

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AEK Larnaca

1/3/2024

1. Division · Round 17Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Othellos26%

×Draw27%

AEK Larnaca47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OthellosExpected goals in this matchAEK Larnaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.45

Othellos

1.00

AEK Larnaca

1.45

AEK Larnaca creates 45% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 118 away

0.95

creates per match

1.29

1.60

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Othellos

0.95

AEK Larnaca

1.29

allows per match

Othellos

1.60

AEK Larnaca

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Othellos+0.00on par

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Othellos ↓

AEK Larnaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Othellos or draw

53%

Othellos or AEK Larnaca

73%

Draw or AEK Larnaca

74%

Winning margin

Othellos wins by 2+

9%

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Othellos 1+ goals

63%

Othellos 2+ goals

26%

Othellos 3+ goals

8%

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

77%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

42%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Othellos (draw refunded)

35%

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Othellos at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Othellos attack 0.95 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

AEK Larnaca attack 1.29 + Othellos defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Othellos scores more

26%

level

27%

AEK Larnaca scores more

47%

AEK Larnaca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff