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AEK Larnaca vs Othellos — 1. Division 2019

AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Othellos
Othellos
9/16/20231. Division1. Division · Round 4AEK Arena - George Karapatakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AEK Larnaca56%
×Draw22%
Othellos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Larnaca
2.00
Othellos
1.17

AEK Larnaca creates 71% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 20 away

creates per match

AEK Larnaca
1.74
Othellos
1.45

allows per match

AEK Larnaca
0.89
Othellos
2.25

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par
Othellos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

Othellos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw
78%
AEK Larnaca or Othellos
78%
Draw or Othellos
44%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
33%
Othellos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
86%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
59%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
32%
Othellos 1+ goals
69%
Othellos 2+ goals
33%
Othellos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
72%
Othellos (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Othellos away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 1.74 + Othellos defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Othellos attack 1.45 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more
56%
level
22%
Othellos scores more
22%

AEK Larnaca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: AEK Larnaca 3–2 Othellos

AEK Larnaca beat Othellos 3-2 in 1. Division on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis in Larnaca.