Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Othellos vs AE Zakakiou — League #319 2026

Othellos
Othellos
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AE Zakakiou
AE Zakakiou
S. Avraam 73'
N. Mytidis 7' (pen)
1/11/2025League #319League #319 · Round 15Gipedo Othellos Athienou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Othellos83%
×Draw11%
AE Zakakiou6%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Othellos
3.15
AE Zakakiou
0.78

Othellos creates 304% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Othellos
3.40
AE Zakakiou
0.56

allows per match

Othellos
1.00
AE Zakakiou
2.89

finishing

Othellos+0.00on par
AE Zakakiou+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Othellos ↓

AE Zakakiou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Othellos or draw
94%
Othellos or AE Zakakiou
89%
Draw or AE Zakakiou
17%

Winning margin

Othellos wins by 2+
64%
AE Zakakiou wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Othellos 1+ goals
96%
Othellos 2+ goals
81%
Othellos 3+ goals
59%
AE Zakakiou 1+ goals
54%
AE Zakakiou 2+ goals
18%
AE Zakakiou 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Othellos (draw refunded)
93%
AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Othellos at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

AE Zakakiou away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Othellos attack 3.40 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 3.15

AE Zakakiou attack 0.56 + Othellos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Othellos scores more
83%
level
11%
AE Zakakiou scores more
6%

Othellos at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Othellos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
N. MytidisPenalty
73'
S. Avraam

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #319: Othellos 0–2 AE Zakakiou

AE Zakakiou beat Othellos 2-0 in League #319 on January 11, 2025.

Goals: N. Mytidis (7' pen), S. Avraam (73').

The match was played at Gipedo Othellos Athienou in Athienou.