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AE Zakakiou vs Othellos — 1. Division 2019

AE Zakakiou
AE Zakakiou
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Othellos
Othellos
2/9/20241. Division1. Division · Round 24Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AE Zakakiou29%
×Draw21%
Othellos51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AE Zakakiou
1.60
Othellos
2.17

Othellos creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

AE Zakakiou
0.95
Othellos
1.45

allows per match

AE Zakakiou
2.90
Othellos
2.25

finishing

AE Zakakiou+0.00on par
Othellos+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AE Zakakiou ↓

Othellos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

AE Zakakiou or draw
49%
AE Zakakiou or Othellos
79%
Draw or Othellos
71%

Winning margin

AE Zakakiou wins by 2+
13%
Othellos wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

AE Zakakiou 1+ goals
80%
AE Zakakiou 2+ goals
47%
AE Zakakiou 3+ goals
22%
Othellos 1+ goals
89%
Othellos 2+ goals
64%
Othellos 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

AE Zakakiou (draw refunded)
36%
Othellos (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AE Zakakiou at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

Othellos away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AE Zakakiou attack 0.95 + Othellos defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.60

Othellos attack 1.45 + AE Zakakiou defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AE Zakakiou scores more
29%
level
21%
Othellos scores more
51%

Othellos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Othellos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AE Zakakiou vs Othellos

AE Zakakiou and Othellos drew 3-3 in 1. Division on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.