Oţelul 1–1 SCM Gloria Buzău: Result & Stats

Oţelul

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SCM Gloria Buzău

11/1/2022

Liga II · Round 12Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oţelul43%

×Draw28%

SCM Gloria Buzău29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OţelulExpected goals in this matchSCM Gloria Buzău

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.04

Oţelul

1.33

SCM Gloria Buzău

1.04

Oţelul creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

1.40

creates per match

1.35

0.73

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Oţelul

1.40

SCM Gloria Buzău

1.35

allows per match

Oţelul

0.73

SCM Gloria Buzău

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw

71%

Oţelul or SCM Gloria Buzău

72%

Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău

57%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+

20%

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals

74%

Oţelul 2+ goals

38%

Oţelul 3+ goals

15%

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals

65%

SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals

28%

SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)

60%

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.40 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.35 + Oţelul defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oţelul scores more

43%

level

28%

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more

29%

Oţelul at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff