Oţelul 4–1 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats | Liga I

Oţelul

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

CFR 1907 Cluj

8/24/2025

Liga I · Round 7Stadionul Otelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Oţelul31%

×Draw28%

CFR 1907 Cluj41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OţelulExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.26

Oţelul

1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.26

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 154 away

1.18

creates per match

1.47

1.05

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Oţelul

1.18

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.47

allows per match

Oţelul

1.05

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw

59%

Oţelul or CFR 1907 Cluj

72%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

69%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+

12%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals

65%

Oţelul 2+ goals

29%

Oţelul 3+ goals

9%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

72%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

36%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)

43%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.18 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + Oţelul defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oţelul scores more

31%

level

28%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

41%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff