CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 Oţelul: Result & Stats | Liga I

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oţelul

1/18/2026

Liga I · Round 22Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj50%

×Draw26%

Oţelul23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchOţelul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.92

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.48

Oţelul

0.92

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 61% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 58 away

1.81

creates per match

1.10

0.74

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.81

Oţelul

1.10

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.74

Oţelul

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Oţelul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

77%

CFR 1907 Cluj or Oţelul

74%

Draw or Oţelul

50%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

25%

Oţelul wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

77%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

43%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

19%

Oţelul 1+ goals

60%

Oţelul 2+ goals

23%

Oţelul 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

68%

Oţelul (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Oţelul attack 1.10 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

50%

level

26%

Oţelul scores more

23%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff