Oţelul 2–1 Arges Pitesti: Result & Stats | Liga I

Oţelul

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arges Pitesti

Paulinho 60'

N. Pedro 55'

L. Sadriu 87'

12/20/2025

Liga I · Round 21Stadionul Otelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Oţelul45%

×Draw26%

Arges Pitesti29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OţelulExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.14

Oţelul

1.49

Arges Pitesti

1.14

Oţelul creates 31% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.80

creates per match

0.96

1.32

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Oţelul

1.80

Arges Pitesti

0.96

allows per match

Oţelul

1.32

Arges Pitesti

1.18

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Oţelul-0.41scores less

Arges Pitesti+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw

71%

Oţelul or Arges Pitesti

74%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

55%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+

22%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals

77%

Oţelul 2+ goals

44%

Oţelul 3+ goals

19%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

68%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

32%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)

61%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.32 · 18 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.18 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.80 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

Arges Pitesti attack 0.96 + Oţelul defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oţelul scores more

45%

level

26%

Arges Pitesti scores more

29%

Oţelul at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

D. Lazar

Arges Pitesti · G

8.7

Match Events

1'

21'

39'

45'

46'

55'

60'

67'

Garutti← T. Seto

67'

I. Radescu← J. Blagaic

76'

76'

83'

84'

84'

Patrick← Paulinho

87'

89'

90+3'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OţelulArges

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots12

1.73Expected Goals (xG)1.53

4Corners7

13Fouls17

Shots

23Total Shots12

11On Target4

7Off Target4

5Blocked4

16Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

499Total Passes276

403Accurate Passes176

81%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1