Arges Pitesti 2–0 Oţelul: Result & Stats | Liga I

Arges Pitesti

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oţelul

R. Sierra 65'

R. Matos 62' (pen)

8/18/2025

Liga I · Round 6Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Arges Pitesti41%

×Draw29%

Oţelul30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchOţelul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.97

Arges Pitesti

1.19

Oţelul

0.97

Arges Pitesti creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.09

creates per match

0.96

0.98

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.09

Oţelul

0.96

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.98

Oţelul

1.28

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.20scores less

Oţelul-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Oţelul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

70%

Arges Pitesti or Oţelul

71%

Draw or Oţelul

59%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

18%

Oţelul wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

70%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

33%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

12%

Oţelul 1+ goals

62%

Oţelul 2+ goals

25%

Oţelul 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

58%

Oţelul (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.98 · 18 matches

Oţelul away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.28 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.09 + Oţelul defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Oţelul attack 0.96 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

41%

level

29%

Oţelul scores more

30%

Arges Pitesti at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Bettaieb

Arges Pitesti · F

7.9

Match Events

34'

Kazu

53'

I. Popescu← C. Dur-Bozoanca

62'

R. MatosPenalty

63'

Andrezinho← Kazu

65'

R. Sierra↳ J. Blagaic

71'

V. Rata← J. Blagaic

75'

R. Moldoveanu← R. Matos

79'

Marius Briceag

79'

Milen Zhelev

86'

D. Neicu← S. Bana

87'

A. Rus← A. Ciobanu

88'

Y. Pirvu← Caio Ferreira

89'

E. Orozco← I. Radescu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgesOţelul

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots10

1.69Expected Goals (xG)0.40

3Corners9

12Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots10

6On Target3

6Off Target6

1Blocked1

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

262Total Passes341

162Accurate Passes256

62%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1